By Eric Anschutz, September 23, 2009
Those of us in the Obama camp were first attracted to his intellectual grasp and to his leadership by his profoundly prescient arguments against the Iraq war. Obama, well before the war began, predicted correctly that it would prove to be an un-winnable quagmire, and warned against our involvement. Now that he is our President, now that he has his own war to contend with, Obama needs to reread his pre-Iraq speech, and reflect on how his own earlier apprehensions about war in Iraq apply equally to the war in Afghanistan.
Here are a few of Obama’s words, spoken six months before the Iraq war began: “I know that even a successful war against Iraq will require a US occupation of undetermined length, at undetermined cost, with undetermined consequences. I know that an invasion of Iraq without a clear rationale and without strong international support will only fan the flames of the Middle East, and encourage the worst, rather than best, impulses of the Arab world, and strengthen the recruitment arm of al Qaeda. I am not opposed to all wars. I’m opposed to dumb wars (emphasis added).â€
I ask you, is there anything about Obama’s October 2002 warning against the Iraq War that does not apply in spades to our war in Afghanistan? Consider these phrases: “Undetermined length; undetermined cost; no clear rationale; no strong international support; fanning the flames and encouraging the worst impulses of the Arab world; strengthening the recruitment arm of al Qaeda. All of these warnings against Bush’s Iraq War apply equally to Obama’s Afghanistan War. And, yes, Mr. President, the Afghanistan war too is a dumb war, no less dumb than the war in Iraq. And you said you were against dumb wars; have you forgotten?
More than 500 American soldiers have died in Afghanistan, and our death rate is escalating. Many thousands of Afghani civilians have died, most as a result of American (and other NATO) bombs dropped inadvertently on wedding parties, schoolyards and hospitals. For what? Whenever our troops leave a “cleared†village, the Taliban move back the next day.
We have been fighting in Afghanistan since October 2002. To what avail? The cost, so far, according to the Center for defense Information, is $440 billion; costs are rising, and for 2010 an additional $128 billion is budgeted. Total costs are likely to exceed $1 trillion when we take into account the need for post-war care for our many wounded. For what purpose? Is this vast expenditure in resources and lives of value to our nation, or might we be better off diverting all that effort and all those resources to other purposes?
The Afghanistan war was undertaken for the purpose of finding Osama bin Laden, and “bringing him to justice.†We are today no closer to that goal than we were eight years ago when the war began. The war continues for the avowed purpose of denying a sanctuary or an operating base for al Qaeda. Because al Qaeda has now spread throughout the world, that goal, it seems to me, is as elusive as is the goal of “getting†bin Laden.
We are told too that our troops are there to “train†Afghani troops and police. We have been doing that for eight years, to no avail. Why do Afghani Government troops need ever-more training when Taliban troops, also Afghanis, are grudgingly praised by our generals for the growing excellence of their strategy and for their dauntless even reckless courage? The reason, however unjustified and even crazy it may seem to us, is that the Taliban believe in their cause; they are ideologues, driven by religious fanaticism, by compulsion to drive out the “occupying armies,†and by hatred of all things American, including in particular our policies in the Middle East. Afghani Government troops, on the other hand, are motivated only by a paycheck and a strong desire to stay alive. No amount of training will make them effective against a Taliban enemy that sees itself as the “sword of Allah.â€
The American effort in Afghanistan could not ask for better leadership. General McChrystal, our commander there, Admiral Mullins, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Robert Gates, Secretary of Defense, are the best we have. So is President Obama. None of them are insensitive to the need to win hearts and minds; each of them knows (and professes frequently) that military action alone will not achieve our goals. So, they pursue diplomacy and negotiation; undertake vigorous efforts at construction of schools and roads and electrical grids and water supplies; instruct our soldiers to deal gently with the local populace; and support elections aimed at bringing into office a President who will command the respect of all Afghanis.
But, the Afghani President is in fact only the Mayor of Kabul; the rest of that vast country is divided into factions and sects, each run by a warlord. There is no allegiance to the nation as such. Hearts and minds that live in a fifteenth century society are difficult for us to reach. And as we build, the Taliban destroys. As we reach out for support, the individual Afghani knows that our soldiers and our money will one day be gone, whereas the Taliban will still be there. The Taliban are feared and hated by many, perhaps by most (especially women). But they live among the people, they are of the people, they were there yesterday and, unlike us, will be there tomorrow.
It has been said that our presence in Afghanistan is like putting a hand into a bucket of water. By doing so, we disturb the water. We cause splashing and ripples. But, when our hand is withdrawn, the water will return to the condition that existed before our hand was inserted. The only hope for Afghanis is indigenous evolution toward modernization, a growing economy, and growing nationalization less weakened by corruption. Until then, Afghanis will continue to suffer despotism and misery. Only the Afghanis themselves can get out from under it.
So, what to do? Bring our troops home. Bring them home from Afghanistan and from Iraq. Bring them home from Germany, too, and from Italy and France and Korea and Japan and from the innumerable other countries in which we have bases. Reduce our defense budget further by slashing unneeded cold war weapons programs. Invest the countless billions so saved in our own infrastructure, education, alternative energy, health care, science and industry. Invest in a Middle East Marshall Plan aimed at improving the lives of those otherwise attracted to al Qaeda and destruction. We know by now that violence breeds violence. Let’s find out if peace and generosity and good will breed peace and generosity and goodwill. And in the meanwhile, let’s make our own country a better place in which to live.